Categories
HOMEPAGE

LIKELIHOOD RATIO | IPA TASTE ANALYSIS

Bayes’ Theorem can be written in two different ways, in terms of probabilities, and in terms of odds ratios.

BAYES' THEOREM - PROBABILITY FORM
BAYES’ THEOREM – PROBABILITY FORM

Bayes’ Theorem in the probability form is used to characterize the ‘Tasteability’ of the individual taste categories in terms of the four graded taste parameters – Appearance, Aroma, Mouthfeel, and Flavor.

It does this by computing the conditional probability  of a taste event, given a joint set of graded taste parameters:

When written in the odds ratio form (see below),  Bayes’ theorem relates the odds ratio in favour of the ‘Tasteability’ category (TCAT) given the taste data (POST_OR), to the odds ratio in favour of the TCAT in the absence of any taste data (PRE_OR).  The factor that relates the two is the Likelihood Ratio (LR).

As the LR increases, so too do the odds in favor of the TCAT ( categories A,B,C, or D ),  given the graded set of taste parameters ( columns B-E ) – the higher the odds (POST_OR), the greater the probability ( Pr( A | BCDE ) ) that the graded taste set Characterizes the given TCAT.